Propagation of the economic impact of lockdowns through supply chains by Hiroyasu Inoue and Yasuyuki Todo published by VOXEU (4/2020).
“Cities and regions around the world are in lockdown in an attempt to contain the spread of Covid-19. This column examines how the economic effect of the lockdown of a city can propagate to other regions in the country, focusing on the case of Tokyo. The findings suggest that if Tokyo were to be locked down for two weeks, the loss in value added production in the city would be 4.3 trillion yen, while the production loss in the rest of Japan due to propagation through supply chains would be 5 trillion yen. In addition, the effect on other regions becomes progressively larger as the duration of the lockdown grows…”
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