An Overview of the 2017 Stability and Convergence Programmes and an Assessment of the Euro Area Fiscal Stance for 2018 published by European Commission (7/2017).
“This paper provides an overview of the 2017 Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs). It takes a glance at budgetary developments in 2016 and sets out the fiscal plans over 2017-2020, both at the country level and the euro area and EU as a whole. It also presents an analysis of the recent and prospective fiscal stance in the euro area.
Headline deficits continued to decrease in 2016, more so than expected last year on aggregate terms, reaching 1.6% of GDP in the euro area (1.7% in the EU). This was mostly thanks to GDP growth exceeding Member States’ prospects. At the same time, the structural balance remained broadly unchanged in the euro area, while improving somewhat in the EU. The fiscal stance of the euro area was broadly neutral on average between 2014 and 2016, following considerable retrenchment over the period 2011-2013.
In 2017 and beyond, SCPs plan further improvements in headline balances, approaching zero in 2020. In structural terms, the fiscal outlook is broadly unchanged in 2017, but consolidation is planned to resume mildly in 2018 and beyond. In 2016, 13 Member States are at or above their MTOs. By the end of the programme horizon, 15 Member States plan to be at or above their MTO and another three expect to be in its vicinity…”
