Governments and promised fiscal consolidations: Do they mean what they say? by Carlos Mulas-Granados, João Tovar Jalles, Michela Schena and Sanjeev Gupta published by IMF (2/2017). “This paper analyses the causes and consequences of fiscal consolidation promise gaps, defined as the distance between planned fiscal adjustments and actual consolidations. Using 74 consolidation episodes derived from the narrative approach in 17 advanced economies during 1978 – 2015, the paper shows that promise gaps were sizeable (about 0.3 percent of GDP per year, or 1.1 percent of GDP during an average fiscal adjustment episode)…”
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