Europe faces tough choices on Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine by Jeffrey J. Schott published PIIE (1/2022).
“The author thanks Megan Hogan for her extensive research on Russia’s pipeline network and for assembling the data on European and Russian gas markets for this analysis.
Pressure is mounting in Europe and the United States to block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from bringing new supplies of Russian gas to Germany if Russian military forces invade Ukraine. Such a step would deprive Russia of substantial export revenues, but Europe would be giving up gas imports needed to mitigate its current energy crisis. Europe has limited near-term options to replace Russian gas imports with supplies from other countries. On the other hand, blocking Nord Stream 2 could prompt European officials to speed up their needed transition away from fossil fuels and dependency on Russian resources.
Germany, the European terminus of the pipeline, has long resisted calls to cancel Nord Stream 2, given its strong commercial ties with Russia. But that could be changing as Russian troops amass on the Ukrainian border. German chancellor Olaf Scholz said on January 18 that “there will be a high price to pay” if Russia invades Ukraine, suggesting Germany might join the sanctions against Russia and Nord Stream 2 if diplomacy does not defuse the crisis.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia may be calculating that Europe cannot afford to cancel the pipeline. Europe has suffered a gas crisis throughout 2021 that continues today: Economic recovery fueled a big spike in demand, while European gas production continued to shrink as the aging Dutch Groningen and other fields are literally running out of gas…”
