The declining fortunes of the young by Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Jay Rappaport published by IMF (2/2020).
“Will I do as well as my parents?
A positive answer to this question once seemed a foregone conclusion; now, for recent generations, less so. Despite being more educated than their parents, millennials—those born between 1980 and 2000—may have less job stability during their working life. Concerns that it might be more difficult to break into the middle class, or to have enough retirement savings, are also rising to the fore in policy debates in many advanced economies.
These concerns stem from the fact that the nature of work and the economic returns to different skills and education-levels are changing rapidly. The number of well-paid middle-skill jobs in manufacturing and clerical occupations has decreased substantially since the mid-1980s in the United States and Europe. Job opportunities today are more concentrated in relatively high-skill, high-wage jobs and low-skill, low-wage Jobs…”
Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom prepared by Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Jay Rappaport published by IMF (10/2019).
“This paper uses a life-cycle framework to document new stylized facts about the nexus between job polarization and earnings inequality. Using quarterly labor force data for the UK over the period 2000-2018, we find clear life-cycle profiles in the probability of being employed within each occupation type and wages earned therein. Cohort plots and econometric analysis suggest that labor market outcomes and prospects have gradually worsened for the young. These adverse trends are particularly significant for low-skill women: estimated cohort effects point to a fall in wages within each occupation as well as a lower propensity of being employed in abstracttask occupations. We also find evidence of general occupational downgrading in the UK, with more educated workers taking up fewer high-skill occupations than they did in the past. Our analysis informs the policy debate over appropriate measures needed to reduce skill mismatches and alleviate labor market transitions.”
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