Aging Is the Real Population Bomb by David E. Bloom and Leo M. Zucker published by IMF (6/2023).
“Total world population passed the 8 billion milestone on November 15, 2022. The progression from 7 to 8 billion people took a mere 12 years, conjuring up long-standing fears associated with rapid population growth, including food shortages, rampant unemployment, the depletion of natural resources, and unchecked environmental degradation.
But the most formidable demographic challenge facing the world is no longer rapid population growth, but population aging. Thoughtful preparedness—combining behavioral changes, investment in human capital and infrastructure, policy and institutional reforms, and technological innovations—can enable countries to meet the challenge and take advantage of the opportunities presented by demographic change.
The specter of a global population bomb has, in reality, been defused (or, rather, fizzled naturally). The world’s rate of population growth has slowed appreciably in recent decades and is projected to continue slowing (see Chart 1, page 61). Even as India surpasses China to become the most populous country in the world, its average annual rate of population growth is projected at 0.7 percent during 2020–40, below the global average of 0.8 percent and just half its 2000–20 rate. Current UN projections also signal an increase in countries experiencing annual population decline, from 41 in 2022 to 88 in 2050 (with China included throughout)…”
