The Future of Foreign Trade by Elhanan Helpman published by NBER (8/2025).
Foreign trade has significantly contributed to global improvements in living standards, a reduction in global inequality since the mid-1990s, and the lifting of millions out of extreme poverty. These gains were supported by the rules-based international order established after World War II. However, these achievements are now under threat. Escalating trade wars risk not only causing significant economic harm to both the United States and low-income countries, but also exacerbating geopolitical tensions.