Post-conflict recovery (David, Bastos and Mills)

Post-conflict recovery: institutions, aid, or Luck? by Antonio C. David, Fabiano R. Bastos and Marshall Mills, published by IMF. “This paper identifies the factors linked to cross-country differentials in growth performance in the aftermath of social conflict for 30 sub-Saharan African countries using panel data techniques. Our results show that changes in the terms of trade are the most important correlate of economic performance in post-conflict environments. The results suggest that exogenous factors (“luck”) are an importante factor in post-conflict recovery.”