Macroeconomic and fiscal scenarios by Felipe Salto – Executive-Director published by IFI (1/2021).
“Highlights
Fiscal stance is the most challenging the country has ever faced
GDP will fall around 4.5% to 5.0% in 2020, and rise just 2.8% in 2021
Primary deficit may reach BRL 779.8 billion in 2020, including the cost of measures to combat the crisis
Public debt will rise by 15 to 16 points of GDP in 2020, and may grow even more in the next years
Debt financing risk is under control, but it exists and has increased
Discussion about the future of fiscal rules in force (mainly the spending ceiling) and the weight of mandatory spending are the two most relevant issues in the fiscal agenda…”
