Forecast Errors (Chatterjee & Nowak)

Forecast errors and uncertainty shocks by Pratiti Chatterjee and Sylwia Nowak published by IMF (11/2016). “…The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts.”Verificar em: