Demographic Dynamics and Immigration Policies in High-Income Countries by Eduardo Andrade and Otaviano Canuto published by Policy Center (4/2024).
Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decades. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and risks of economic stagnation.
Immigration may by a way for those countries to mitigate the tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, brain drain is a risk.
The policy paper presents the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, as an example for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades.
Population aging is a strong trend in place. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and the risk of economic stagnation. Most high income countries will experience a decline in their populations over the next few decades, and immigration is a way to offset this tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, ‘brain drain’ is a risk.
In this policy paper, we start by summarizing some general features of migration flows and then we delineate how the demographic transition will unfold differently across countries and continents. We then discuss the two primary costs of aging to high-income countries, and their potential influence on immigration policy. We also present the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, serving as a template for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades. Finally, we offer our conclusions.
