Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle by Travis B. Berge published by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (4/2013). “This paper evaluates the ability of several commonly followed economic indicators to predict business cycle turning points. As a baseline, forecasts from univariate models are combined by taking averages or by weighting forescasts with model-implied posterior probabilities…”
Business Cycle (Berge)
