After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage – Analytical Chapters of the World Economic Outlook published by IMF indicated Alvaro Manoel (4/2021)
This chapter examines the possible persistent damage (scarring) that may occur from the COVID-19 recession and the channels through which they may occur. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term losses are expected to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still substantial, at about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
The Analytical Chapters of the World Economic Outlook find that compared to the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 recession had three times the impact on global output in half the time. How great will be the economic damage in years to come? What might be the lasting impact of the pandemic-induced recession on employment? How can policymakers help the workforce cope with the pandemic’s harsh and unequal impact?
COMING SOON
April 6, 8:30 a.m. – Release of the full World Economic Outlook Report with updated global and regional growth projections, and Press Conference with: IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, Deputy Director of the IMF Research Department, Petya Koeva Brooks, and Division Chief in the IMF Research Department, Malhar Nabar.
