Good Policy x Luck (Cecchetti et ali.)

Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck? by Stephen Cecchetti, Michael R. King and James Yetman, published by BIS. “The macroeconomic performance of individual countries varied markedly during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. We exploit this cross-country variation to examine whether a country’s macroeconomic performance over this period was the result of pre-crisis policy decisions or just good luck. The answer is a bit of both.”