The municipios facing COVID-19 in Brazil: socioeconomic vulnerabilities, transmisssion mechanisms and public policies by François Roubaud, Mireille Razafindrakoto, João Saboia, Marta Castilho, Valeria Pero published by IE/UFRJ (2020).
Early October 2020, Brazil was one of the countries most affected by COVID-19, both in number of proven cases (3rd) and in number of deaths (2nd), while the first wave of the pandemic is not over yet. This paper intends to provide knowledge on the development of the pandemic in Brazil and therefore to feed into the reflection on the policies implemented or to be promoted to combat it. The study has two objectives: to identify the risk factors for contracting COVID-19 and dying from it, according to different social categories; to highlight potential transmission channels as well as the effect of a number of measures. Carried out at the level of all Brazilian municipalities (5,570), the analysis is based on the matching of different statistical and administrative databases, involving the processing of tens of millions of observations. To our knowledge, it is the first of its kind in Brazil. The econometric analysis conducted in five points in time shows three main results. First, structurally vulnerable populations are the most affected: non-white, poor, poor health, favela residents, informal people, highlighting the effect of socioeconomic inequalities when facing of the disease. Second, “density” (both within neighborhoods and housing) and “mobility” are decisive. Third, we highlight some policies consequences. In the municipios where containment measures were taken earlier, the pandemic is better controlled. The Auxilio emergencial has a mitigating effect in localities where there are relatively more informal workers, who can, thanks to it, limit their business trips and better protect themselves. Finally, COVID-19 hits the most in the municipios more favorable to President Bolsonaro. The president’s ambiguous speech and attitudes may induce his supporters to adopt risky behavior more often and to suffer the consequences.
