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Predicting Fiscal Crises (Cerovic et al.)

Predicting fiscal crises by Svetlana Cerovic, Kerstin Gerling, Andrew Hodge, and Paulo Medas published by IMF, indicated by Alvaro Manoel (8/2018). “This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stage of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods…”

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