Older and Smaller by Benedict Clements, Kamil Dybczak and Mauricio Soto published by Finance & Development/IMF (3/2016).
“With fertility rates falling across the globe, population declines will become more widespread over the next few decades. According to the latest projections from the United Nations (2015), the world’s population will peak around 2100 and begin to shrink soon thereafter. Populations are already shrinking in several countries, and by the end of the century, nearly 70 percent of more-developed and 65 percent of less-developed countries will have shrinking populations (see Chart 1).
As a result there will be a gradual increase in the ratio of old individuals to young. The global old-age dependency ratio (the number of people ages 65 and older divided by the population ages 15 to 64) will triple over the next 85 years, driven by rapid aging in lessdeveloped countries (see Chart 2). In China and Kenya, for example, the United Nations (UN) projects that the old-age dependency ratio will increase fivefold between 2015 and the end of the century. In more-developed countries, the ratio will double over this period, which is in line with the expected developments in the European Union, Japan, and the United States. The United Nations defines more-developed countries to include all of Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States…”
