Fiscal Follow-Up Report published by IFI (10/2021)
The revision of the economic growth projection for 2021 (from 4.2% to 4.9%), compatible with incorporating the second quarter GDP result and the signals of high-frequency indicators, is explained by commodity rising prices and services sector recovery. The downward revision of the growth rate for 2022 (from 2.3% to 1.7%), in turn, stems from the intensification of interest rate hikes needed to contain the advance of inflation and anchor expectations. The baseline scenario assumes that the output gap will narrow by the end of 2024 when real GDP growth equals the estimated potential GDP (2.2%). (Page 6)
