Short-term forecasts of covid-19 deaths in multiple countries published by Imperial College London (4/2020).
“As of 26-04-2020, more than 2,800,000 cases of COVID-19 have been reported across the world, with more than 190,000 deaths (1). This weekly report presents forecasts of the reported number of deaths in the week ahead and analysis of case reporting trends (case ascertainment) for 48 countries with active transmission.
The accuracy of these forecasts vary with the quality of surveillance and reporting in each country. We use the reported number of deaths due to COVID-19 to make these short-term forecasts as these are likely more reliable and stable over time than reported cases. In countries with poor reporting of deaths, these forecasts will likely represent an under-estimate while the forecasts for countries with few deaths might be unreliable. Our estimates of transmissibility reflect the epidemiological situation at the time of the infection of COVID-19 fatalities. Therefore, the impact of controls on estimated transmissibility will be quantifiable with a delay between transmission and death…”
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