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A ‘New Modesty’? (Gayer & Marc)

A ‘New Modesty’? level shifts in survey data and the decreasing trend of ‘normal’ growth by Christian Gayer and Bertrand Marc published by European Commission (7/2018). “…Using rolling regressions and time-varying parameter models for the euro area, the paper shows that the growth rates typically implied by given survey results did not only fall during the Great recession, but already decreased rather systematically for close to 20 years before the crisis, i.e. since around 1990…”

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