Atualizações da Semana
Atualização 60, 11/06/2020

A opção pela depressão (Afonso, Biasoto Jr., Viana)

A opção pela depressão (Afonso, Biasoto Jr., Viana)
A opção pela depressão por José Roberto R. Afonso, Geraldo Biasoto Jr. e Murilo Ferreira Viana publicado pela Revista Conjuntura Econômica (6/2020).

"A economia mundial, de forma inédita, mergulhou rápida e intensamente em recessão com a pandemia da Covid-19 e a imperiosidade das medidas de distanciamento social.

O governo brasileiro optou pela depressão ao apostar no negacionismo em geral, na inépcia na política econômica e numa insuficiente resposta sanitária.1 Mundo afora, expectativas de investidores e empresários foram rompidas dramaticamente, levando-os a paralisar investimentos e a reduzir a produção, e famílias diminuíram e mudaram o seu consumo, como nunca, pela impossibilidade de comprar e pela perda de renda. No Brasil, essa crise de confiança foi ainda potencializada pela estúpida crença que interesses da saúde seriam contraditórios aos econômicos e resultou que o medo de se contaminar seja mais que o dobro do que o da crise econômica.2 A depressão se tornou um destino inevitável.

Enquanto se especula entre “V” ou em “U” para a evolução da economia, termômetros evidenciam uma atividade em “L” há semanas. Entre outros indicadores, desde a segunda semana de março, transporte rodoviário de carga amargou uma queda de -41,2% na demanda geral até 17 de maio. Desde o início de março, o faturamento total da maior rede de “maquininhas” sofreu redução de 29,5% até 16 de maio – conforme gráfico a seguir.

Sopa de letras à parte, urge elaborar um diagnóstico mais acurado da depressão da Covid-19 para daí traçar um plano para seu enfrentamento e superação. A fim de instigar o debate, partimos de algumas lições teóricas ou históricas.

Reforma Tributária (Almeida et al.)

Encontro promovido pelo Encat para debater as propostas de Reforma Tributária com participação do Moderador Eudaldo Almeida, Debatedor Márcio F. Verdi, Palestrantes Luiz Carlos Hauly, Rafael Fonteles, Eurico de Santi, José Barroso T. Neto. O evento ocorrera com transmissão ao vivo pelas redes sociais da SEFAZ-AL, no dia 15 de junho de 2020, das 15h às 18h.

Diário da Covid-19 (Alves)

Diário da Covid-19 (Alves)
Diário da Covid-19: Turquia controla a pandemia e o Irã tem segunda onda por José Eustáquio Diniz Alves publicado por Colabora (6/2020).

"Enquanto isso, Brasil segue com a sua curva vertical e sem perspectivas de melhoras no curto prazo 

 A pandemia avança pelo mundo, mas existem países ganhadores e países perdedores. O Brasil, até aqui, claramente, é um perdedor. A Turquia parecia que ia perder o controle, mas deu a volta por cima e conseguiu reduzir bastante o número de casos e de mortes. O Irã parecia que já tinha controlado o surto, mas está enfrentando uma grande segunda onda de casos e uma pequena segunda onda de óbitos. O mundo que parecia ter chegado ao pico dos casos, voltou a apresentar aumento do número de pessoas infectadas, embora continue com a tendência de redução no número de óbitos.

O gráfico abaixo mostra que o Brasil ultrapassou o Irã e a Turquia em número de casos acumulados e continua com uma curva mais vertical, o que indica que a pandemia avança em velocidade maior em território nacional. A Turquia e o Irã estavam horizontalizando a curva, mas o Irã passou a inclinar a curva e passar por uma segunda onda, como veremos melhor mais à frente. No dia 08 de junho, o Brasil registrou 707,4 mil casos, o Irã registrou 173,8 mil e a Turquia 171,1 mil casos. Portanto, o Brasil que estava atrás do Irã e da Turquia até o início de maio, em pouco mais de um mês apresenta valores 4 vezes maiores (o número de casos no Brasil cresceu 6 vezes no mês de maio)...."

A New Policy Toolkit (Blanchard et al.)

A New Policy Toolkit Is Needed as Countries Exit COVID-19 Lockdowns by Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon, and Jean Pisani-Ferry indicated by Alvaro Manoel published by PIIE (6/2020) .


"When it became clear that the COVID-19 pandemic required widespread lockdown of all but essential firms, most governments took measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity. These measures included unemployment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates, and tax deferrals. Their nearly exclusive focus was protection. As lockdowns are lifted, as some of these measures come to an end, and as it becomes clear that some sectors will have to contract and others expand, the focus must progressively shift. As usual in the aftermath of a major shock, protection must be balanced with reallocation, taking into account changing prospects for sectors and firms. Incentives must be given to firms and workers to resume activity, and when needed to adjust. Debt inherited from the freeze must be restructured if unsustainable. But policymakers must also consider the consequences of heightened uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the economy, and the large increase in the number of workers out of work. In other words, as governments in advanced economies move from freeze to exit, they must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment. This Policy Brief explores how such measures can be designed. Our conceptual approach is general, but in a companion paper1 we provide implementation details in the case of France. Section I briefly describes the measures that were taken to accompany the lockdown, in particular in Europe and the United States. Section II presents the protection and reallocation architecture that should underlie the new measures, namely a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and a process-light restructuring of legacy debts. Section III concludes."


Impacto da PEC 6/2019 (Casalecchi)

Simulação do impacto da PEC 6/2019 sobre as despesas do RPPS dos servidores civis da União por Alessandro Ribeiro de Carvalho Casalecchi, Rodrigo Octávio Orair e Pedro Henrique Oliveira de Souza publicado por Revista Cadernos de Finanças Públicas (2020).
"Este estudo busca contribuir para o debate sobre a Reforma da Previdência de 2019. Para  tanto,  simula  computacionalmente  as  despesas  previdenciárias  do  Regime Próprio de Previdência Social (RPPS) da União, de 2020 a 2060, sob três cenários: (a) regras previdenciárias atualmente vigentes, (b) regras previstas na PEC 06/2019, da  Reforma  da  Previdência,  em  sua  versão  original  e  (c)  regras  previstas  no
substitutivo  a  esta  PEC,  apresentado  em  13  de  junho  de  2019  na  Câmara  dos Deputados. A   modelagem   pode   ser   diretamente   estendida   para   prover   uma ferramenta  para o  servidor  público  avaliar  uma  das  próximas  reformas  que  se aproximam, a Reforma Administrativa, que afetará as carreiras do setor público federal. Isto é, a abordagem não se limita ao tema previdenciário..."

Global Economy in Crisis ( The World Bank)

Pandemic, Recession: The Global Economy in Crisis published by The World Bank (2020).

"COVID-19 has triggered the deepest global recession in decades. While the ultimate outcome is still uncertain, the pandemic will result in contractions across the vast majority of emerging market and developing economies. It will also do lasting damage to labor productivity and potential output. The immediate policy priorities are to alleviate the human costs and atenuate the near-term economic losses. Once the crisis abates, it will be necessary to reaffirm credible commitment to sustainable policies and undertake the necessary reforms to buttress long-term prospects. Global coordination and cooperation will be critical.

2019 Revision of World Population Prospects (United Nations)

"The 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.

The main results are presented in a series of Excel files displaying key demographic indicators for each UN development group, World Bank income group, geographic region, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) region, subregion and country or area for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100. For advanced users who need to use these data in a database form or statistical software, we recommend to use the CSV format for bulk download. Special Aggregates also provide additional groupings of countries..."

How Governments can Deliver Impact (Cassim et al.)

The $10 trillion rescue: How governments can deliver impact by Ziyad Cassim, Borko Handjiski, Jörg Schubert and Yassir Zouaoui published by McKinsey & Company (5/2020).

"The COVID-19 crisis is one of the worst health emergencies the world has witnessed for a century, and its economic impact could be just as steep. While it took several quarters for unemployment to peak in other crises, the economic shock of the COVID-19 crisis has been larger than that of any previous crisis—and it materialized within weeks. Five weeks into the crisis, the weekly number of jobs lost in the United States continues to exceed any pre-COVID-19 record. In some sectors, demand came practically to a halt in a matter of days as a result of lockdown measures.

Governments’ economic responses to the crisis is unprecedented, too: $10 trillion announced just in the first two months, which is three times more than the response to the 2008–09 financial crisis (Exhibit 1). 1 Western European countries alone have allocated close to $4 trillion, an amount almost 30 times larger than today’s value of the Marshall Plan. The magnitude of government responses has put delivery into uncharted territory. Governments have included all shapes and forms in their stimulus packages: guarantees, loans, value transfers to companies and individuals, deferrals, and equity investments—as if advice from all modern schools of economic thought has been applied at the same time..."

New Imperatives for European Banking (Lemerle et al.)

No going back:  New imperatives for European banking by Matthieu Lemerle, Debasish Patnaik, Ildiko Ring, Hiro Sayama, and Marcus Sieberer published by McKinsey & Company (5/2020).

"Now is the time for Europe’s banking leaders to reimagine how their institutions operate and their role in society.

The imperative of our time COVID-19 remains an unresolved health challenge that has resulted in tragic loss of life. The economic contraction emerging in its wake will likely be the deepest since World War II and the road to recovery will be long and challenging.
Over the past few months, banking leaders have displayed resolve and resilience, moving swiftly to protect the health of employees and customers, ensure the continuity of basic banking services, and build up capital, liquidity, and cost buffers to strengthen their institutions. In the coming months, banks will start to return to something resembling normal service, reopening offices and branches. But so much has changed over the past few weeks: customers’ financial needs, the way they engage, how employees work, and even society’s expectations of banks.
The industry will likely face a prolonged period of economic pressure and banks’ actions in the coming months will set their performance trajectory for the years ahead. Banks have shown during the lockdown what is possible in terms of speed and innovation. There is no going back. Now is the time for banking executives to reimagine how their institutions operate. Bold vision and disciplined execution on a set of key imperatives will ultimately differentiate the leaders from the laggards as this crisis abates..."


Stability in the Storm (Buehler et al.)

Stability in the storm:  US banks in the pandemic and the next normal by Kevin Buehler, Miklos Dietz, Marie-Claude Nadeau, Fritz Nauck, Lorenzo Serino, and Olivia White published by McKinsey & Company (5/2020).

"Banks will be tested. Now is their chance to use their hard-won  resilience to preserve the financial system and support their  customers and communities.
The humanitarian and economic fallout of  the COVID-19 pandemic has upset the global balance. No person, industry, or aspect of society remains untouched.
The banking industry can uniquely act as a primary source of stability. Banks guard savings and investments, provide sound credit and financing, deliver safe and secure payments and transaction services, and offer trusted advice. They are not simply commercial enterprises but providers of important services to individuals and communities, playing a vital role in the functioning of the economy.
Banks in the United States entered the COVID-19 crisis with the strength of ample capital and liquidity and have moved rapidly to protect their employees and customers. Most have shifted the majority of their workforces to remote work and have closed or reduced capacity at branches while also dedicating hours to serving high-risk customers. Individuals and businesses have received forbearance where needed, and banks have served as critical conduits for the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve and for the credit and loan forgiveness offered via the Paycheck Protection Program and the Main Street Lending Program. As such, in the early phases of the pandemic, US banks have largely been living up to societal expectations.
Yet the challenge to come is daunting and the path uncertain. Unemployment has hit levels not seen since the aftermath of the Great Depression. More than 25 percent of small businesses anticipate declaring bankruptcy in the next six months. Hardhit industries, such as oil and gas, travel, and retail, may be forever reshaped. For banks, near-zero interest rates and a flattened yield curve mean diminished net interest income. Credit losses could exceed $1 trillion. Recovery, when it comes, will vary in speed and intensity across industries and regions. The lasting effects will linger for many years— perhaps a decade or more.
As our colleagues have suggested, meeting the challenge will require disciplined thought and bold action. So far, banks have acted swiftly and with resolve to meet the first acute phase of crisis. Now, they must show resilience under great uncertainty, beginning the return from lockdown and reimagining their new postcrisis future. Amid widespread economic struggles and heightened disparities, banks have the opportunity to rediscover their purpose and reform their contract with society, providing stability in the pandemic storm..."


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