Atualizações da Semana
Atualização , 29/07/2020

Mais gastos melhoram o desempenho educacional? (Oliveira)

Mais gastos melhoram o desempenho educacional? (Oliveira)
Mais gastos melhoram o desempenho educacional? por João Batista Oliveira publicado por Veja (7/2020).

"Estudos reconhecem que mais dinheiro pode importar na educação, mas tudo depende de como ele é gasto

A premissa fundamental para defender a ampliação dos recursos para o FUNDEB é a de que há uma relação causal entre recursos e desempenho dos alunos. A literatura acadêmica reconhece que dinheiro pode importar, como documentado por Jackson (2018), citado ao final deste post.

Mas, como o próprio Jackson conclui, tudo depende de como dinheiro é gasto. Estudos mais pontuais, como os de Joana Monteiro (2015) para o Brasil, e de Ganimiam e Murnane (2016) para países em desenvolvimento, corroboram como aumento de gastos em si não levam a melhor desempenho.

Finanças Públicas e Saúde (IDP)

Finanças públicas e saúde: responsabilização estatal na crise em Democracia e Instituições: Crises e desafios evento promovido pelo IDP com a participação dos convidados Élida Graziane Pinto, Fernando Scaff, Eloísa Machado e os mediadores Lais Porto, Diego Viegas Veras, Rodrigo Mudrovitsch e Ney Bello. O evento ocorrerá na quinta-feira, 30 de Julho, às 17h. No canal do Youtube.com/idponline

How does unemployment insurance work? (Kovalski & Sheiner)

How does unemployment insurance work? And how is it changing during the coronavirus pandemic? by Manuel Alcalá Kovalski and Louise Sheiner published by Brookings, indicated by Alvaro Manoel (7/2020).

"Unemployment insurance is a major element of the U.S. government’s response to the economic dislocation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, enacted in March 2020, expanded the unemployment insurance system to provide relief to those who are out of work, but some of those benefits expire on July 31 unless Congress acts before then. Here is a primer on unemployment insurance before and during the pandemic.

HOW DOES UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WORK IN ORDINARY TIMES?

Created in 1935, the federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) program (as it was structured pre-COVID-19) temporarily replaces a portion of wages for workers who have been laid off, as long as they are looking and available for work. Although benefits vary by state, in most states the program provides up to 26 weeks of benefits to unemployed workers and, on average, replaces half of a workers’ previous wages. Because more workers lose their jobs during economic downturns, this program also provides needed economic stimulus that helps mitigate the severity of recessions.

The Distributional Impact of Recessions (Shibata)

The Distributional Impact of Recessions: the Global Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession by Ippei Shibata published by IMF (6/2020).

"Using the U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the Pandemic Crisis and those of the Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics–“social” (where individuals interact to consume goods), “teleworkable” (where individuals have the option of working at home), and “essential” jobs (which were not subject to government mandated shut-downs during the recent recession), and (iii) wage distributions. We find that young and less educated workers have always been affected more in recessions, while women and Hispanics were more severely affected during the Pandemic Recession. Surprisingly, teleworkable, social and essential jobs have been historically less cyclical. This historical acyclicality of teleworkable occupations is attributable to its higher share of skilled workers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fell more whereas employment in teleworkable and essential jobs fell less during the Pandemic Crisis. Lastly, during both recessions, workers at low-income earnings have suffered more than topincome earners, suggesting a significant distributional impact of the two recessions."

Crédito e crescimento regional no Brasil (Ehrl et al.)

Crédito e crescimento regional no Brasil: o BNDES versus bancos privados e públicos por Philipp Ehrl, Greisson Almeida Pereira, Vinicius Vizzotto Zanchi publicado por IPEA (7/2020).

“Este Texto para Discussão distingue como a fonte dos empréstimos afetou o produto interno bruto (PIB) per capita dos municípios brasileiros entre 2007 e 2016. Um conjunto único de dados nos permite discriminar entre os efeitos de empréstimos oferecidos tanto por bancos comerciais públicos quanto privados e empréstimos do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) fornecidos direta ou indiretamente, por meio de instituições financeiras credenciadas. Utilizando a estimação de método dos momentos generalizado sistêmico (system-generalized method of moments), descobrimos que o crédito livre de bancos comerciais públicos possui o maior efeito sobre o crescimento econômico devido à sua distribuição regional. No âmbito do BNDES, os empréstimos indiretos se mostraram como os mais robustos e significativos, já que esse mecanismo visa primariamente a empresas em regiões pequenas, com pouca disponibilidade de crédito e cuja oferta é anticíclica.

The Saving Glut of the Rich (Mian et al.)

The Saving Glut of the Rich by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub and Amir Suf (7/2020). "There has been a large rise in savings by Americans in the top 1% of the income or wealth distribution over the past 35 years, which we call the saving glut of the rich. The saving glut of the rich has been as large as …

Starting over again (The Economist)

Starting over again The covid-19 pandemic is forcing a rethink in macroeconomics published by The Economist (7/2020) "It is not yet clear where it will lead IN THE FORM it is known today, macroeconomics began in 1936 with the publication of John Maynard Keynes’s “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”. Its subsequent history can be divided into three …

Taxation of the digitalized economy (KPMG)

Taxation of the digitalized economy - Developments summary published by KPMG (7/2020). Spain: Tax on financial transactions in draft legislation pending parliamentary consideration published by KPMG (3/2020). "A draft of financial transactions tax legislation was published in the official gazette on 28 February 2020—thus, beginning the parliamentary process for the bill to be considered by the Spanish Parliament..." …

China’s Fiscal Dilemma (Yongding)

China’s Fiscal Dilemma by  Yu Yongding published by Project Syndicate (7/2020).

"The Chinese government is likely to face a tricky economic policy choice in the second half of this year. If it loosens its fiscal stance, public finances will worsen significantly. But if it cuts expenditure to offset the pandemic-related revenue shortfall, growth will be lower, with dire consequences.

BEIJING – COVID-19 hit the Chinese economy hard in the first quarter of 2020, causing real GDP to contract by 6.8% year on year. But since the city of Wuhan emerged from lockdown in early April, the economy has gradually returned to normal, and grew by 3.2% in the second quarter. According to the consensus view, China’s current potential GDP growth rate is 6%. If it achieves this in the second half of 2020, the economy could post full-year annual growth of 2.5%.

Economics and the Culture War (Skidelsky)

Economics and the Culture War by Robert Skidelsky published by Project Syndicate (7/2020).

"Some economists may prefer to concentrate on the current economic situation while standing apart from cultural questions, or to say that the current kerfuffle over "cancel culture" will recede when the economy improves. But this is to abdicate responsibility, and to choose the easy road under cover of their discipline's neutrality.

LONDON – I have long criticized economics for its lack of realism, and for producing “models” of human behavior that are at best caricatures, and at worst parodies of the real thing. In my recent book What’s Wrong with Economics?, I argue that, in their attempt to establish universal laws, economists willfully ignored the particularities of histories and culture.1

The economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen brilliantly captured this blindness. In a 1908 article, Veblen imagined economists explaining the behavior of “a gang of Aleutian Islanders slushing about in the wrack and surf with rakes and magical incantations for the capture of shellfish” in terms of utility maximization.

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