Atualizações da semana de economia

Atualização 60, 25/04/2020

Regime Excepcional Fiscal e Financeiro (Salto & Afonso)

Um orçamento para a guerra - proposta que cria regime excepcional fiscal e financeiro é arma poderosa por Felipe Salto e José R. Afonso (4/2020).

"A gravidade da crise disparada pelo espalhamento da Covid-19 requer ações contundentes do Estado. Em tempos de guerra, gastos públicos vultosos serão necessários e precisarão ser planejados e executados com uma eficiência incomum. É recomendável ter um orçamento apartado para dar total transparência a fontes e usos de recursos e para blindar as contas públicas do risco de desarranjo e insustentabilidade..."

Crise: Coronavírus e o Futuro do Welfare State (Kerstenetzky)

Crise: Coronavírus e o Futuro do Welfare State com Celia Kerstenetzky

"Neste programa da série Crise, Esther Dweck entrevista Celia Lessa Kerstenetzky, que comenta a situação na Itália, compara as medidas propostas no Brasil com a de outros países, tanto os com Estado de Bem-Estar Social consolidados quanto os que estavam reduzindo a cobertura, e apresenta os novos compromissos que precisam ser assumidos por um Estado de Bem-Estar. Nessa perspectiva, ela discute até que ponto essa pandemia pode ter sido causada por fatores endógenos decorrentes do atual padrão de desenvolvimento. A professora Celia indica como leitura o capítulo 17 do livro "Capital e ideologia" de Thomas Piketty. Celia Lessa Kerstenetzky é Professora Titular do Instituto de Economia da UFRJ e Esther Dweck é professora associada do Instituto de Economia da UFRJ."

Recessão à Retomada Econômica (Magnoli et al.)

Debate ao vivo do CEBRI Online “Da recessão à retomada econômica: quão longa será a travessia?”, com José Roberto Mendonça de Barros, Fundador da MB Associados, Demétrio Magnoli, Conselheiro do CEBRI e Pedro Malan, Conselheiro Emérito do CEBRI.

Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression (Gopinath)

The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression by Gita Gopinath published by IMFBlog (4/2020).

"The world has changed dramatically in the three months since our last update of the World Economic Outlook in January. A rare disaster, a coronavirus pandemic, has resulted in a tragically large number of human lives being lost. As countries implement necessary quarantines and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic, the world has been put in a Great Lockdown. The magnitude and speed of collapse in activity that has followed is unlike anything experienced in our lifetimes..."

Covid-19 Crisis Poses Threat (Adrian & Natalucci)

Covid-19 crisis poses threat to financial stability by Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci published by IMFBlog (4/2020).

"The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented human and health crisis. The measures necessary to contain the virus have triggered an economic downturn. At this point, there is great uncertainty about its severity and length. The latest Global Financial Stability Report shows that the financial system has already felt a dramatic impact, and a further intensification of the crisis could affect global financial stability..."

The Great Lockdown (IMF)

World Economic Outlook, April 2020: Chapter 1: The Great Lockdown published by IMF, indicated by Alvaro Manoel (4/2020)

"The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. The risks for even more severe outcomes, however, are substantial..."

Reconstruir Economia (Levy)

'Tentar reconstruir economia como era um tempo atrás não vai funcionar', diz ex-ministro da Fazenda publicado pelo Estadão (4/2020).

“Para Joaquim Levy, mercado vai aceitar melhor ou pior o déficit nas contas públicos dependendo do que for aprovado no Congresso e defende o avanço de marcos regulatórios e da reforma tributária

Ex-presidente do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) e ex-ministro da Fazenda Joaquim Levy diz que o mercado vai aceitar melhor ou pior o déficit nas contas públicas que está sendo projetado agora, de 5,5% do PIB, a depender do que se vote no Congresso. Para ele, seria o momento de passar alguns marcos regulatórios, como saneamento e gás natural, bem como a reforma tributária, que simplifique o PIS/Cofins, "um tributo indireto que pesa muito sobre as empresas...”

New Tools of Monetary Policy (Bernanke)

The New Tools of Monetary Policy by Ben S. Bernanke published by American Economic Review (2020).

"To overcome the limits on traditional monetary policy imposed by the effective lower bound on short-term interest rates, in recent years the Federal Reserve and other advanced-economy central banks have deployed new policy tools. This lecture reviews what we know about the new monetary tools, focusing on quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance, the principal new tools used by the Fed. I argue that the new tools have proven effective at easing financial conditions when policy rates are constrained by the lower bound, even when financial markets are functioning normally, and that they can be made even more effective in the future. Accordingly, the new tools should become part of the standard central bank toolkit..."

Without Fear and Without Favour (Financial Times)

Without fear and without favour by Financial Times (4/2020).

"If there is a silver lining to the Covid-19 pandemic, it is that it has injected a sense of togetherness into polarised societies. But the virus, and the economic lockdowns needed to combat it, also shine a glaring light on existing inequalities - and even create new ones..."

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