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Atualização 60, 03/04/2020
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"Momento agora é de governo se endividar", diz pai da LRF sobre gastos no combate à pandemia publicado por Estadão (4/2020).
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"Um dos pais da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), o professor José Roberto Afonso, do Instituto Brasiliense de Direito Público (IDP), avalia que o governo federal não precisa de uma Proposta de Emenda Constitucional (PEC) para agir e tomar medidas que precisem de aumento de gastos para o enfrentamento da crise da covid-19. Ele ressalta que governadores e prefeitos já estão agindo."
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Equality and Responsibility in Financial Crisis: an ethical approach to the regulation of bail-outs, moral hazards and accountability by Ramiro de Ávila Peres published by Banco Central do Brasil (3/2020).
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“After the 2008 crisis, there were several debates on the bail-out and the lack of accountability of financial institutions; this supposedly affects political values such as equality and responsibility: it implies transferring resources from the public (for instance, poor people) to specific economic agents who have chosen to incur certain risks. On the other hand, it is arguable that it would not be up to the regulators to protect investors’ interests, and that there would be more efficient and less burdensome instruments associated with prudential regulation. Our goal is to provide a justification for the bail-out and for holding bankers accountable. In section 2, we present a brief description of the problem in the context of the crisis, followed by a justification for the bail-out through the incentives argument, based on Rawls’s difference principle. In section 3, we provide an ethical discussion over the corresponding moral hazards, and investigate how to mitigate it through coercive measures.”
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Modeling and forecasting the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil by Saulo B. Bastos and Daniel O. Cajueiro (4/2020).
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"We model and forecast the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil using Brazilian recent data from February, 25, 2020 to March, 28, 2020. We use two variations of the SIR model and we include a parameter in this model that accounts for the effects of confinement measures. We do not calibrate our models parameters, but we estimate all of them based on a clear hierarchical procedure of squared error minimization. The estimated parameters of the ratio between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, the proportion of infected individuals that die and the usual epidemiological parameters have a great match with the ones provided by the literature. Our final models provide precise forecasts of the number of infected individuals. We use these models to discuss different scenarios of public policies. Long terms forecasts show that the confinement policy imposed by the government is able to flatten the pattern of infection of the COVID-19 and we are able to find the optimal date to end the policy. However, our results show that if this policy does not last enough time, it is only able to shift the peak of infection into the future keeping the value of the peak in almost the same value."
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How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home? by Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman published by Becher Friedman Institute (3/2020).
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“Evaluating the economic impact of ‘social distancing’ measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a number of fundamental questions about the modern economy: How many jobs can be performed at home? What share of total wages are paid to such jobs? How does the scope for working from home vary across cities or industries? To answer these questions, we classify the feasibility of working at home for all occupations and merge this classification with occupational employment counts for the United States. Our feasibility measure is based on responses to two Occupational Information Network (O*NET) surveys covering ‘work context’ and ‘generalized work activities’...”
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A timeline of central bank responses to the COVID-19 pandemic by Christopher G. Collins and Joseph E. Gagnon published by PIIE (2020).
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"The near certainty of a major global recession means that governments must continue to harness both monetary and fiscal policy to soften the blow. Fiscal policy must do the heaviest lifting, but monetary policy can play an important role. The following timeline displays the actions taken by the central banks of the five largest economies: the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the Bank of England (BOE)..."
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Brasil deveria fazer 'esforço de guerra' para manter as pessoas em casa, diz economista da Universidade de Chicago publicado por BBC News Brasil (2020).
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"O economista italiano Luigi Zingales é professor há quase 30 anos na faculdade de negócios da Universidade de Chicago, celeiro de ideias capitalistas liberais na qual o ministro da Economia, Paulo Guedes, se orgulha de ter estudado. Os dois discordam, no entanto, sobre os caminhos a seguir diante da pandemia de coronavírus que já contaminou 660 mil pessoas e matou ao menos 30 mil no mundo todo..."
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How Pandemics Change History by Isaac Chotiner published by The New Yorker (3/2020).
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“In his new book, 'Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present,' Frank M. Snowden, a professor emeritus of history and the history of medicine at Yale, examines the ways in which disease outbreaks have shaped politics, crushed revolutions, and entrenched racial and economic discrimination. Epidemics have also altered the societies they have spread through, affecting personal relationships, the work of artists and intellectuals, and the man-made and natural environments. Gigantic in scope, stretching across centuries and continents, Snowden’s account seeks to explain, too, the ways in which social structures have allowed diseases to flourish. 'Epidemic diseases are not random events that afflict societies capriciously and without warning,' he writes. 'On the contrary, every society produces its own specific vulnerabilities. To study them is to understand that society’s structure, its standard of living, and its political priorities'...”
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World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020 : East Asia and Pacific in the Time of COVID-19 published by World Bank (2020).
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"The COVID-19 virus that triggered a supply shock in China has now caused a global shock. Developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), recovering from a trade war and struggling with a viral disease, now face the prospect of a global financial shock and recession. Significant economic pain seems unavoidable in all countries and the risk of financial instability is high, especially in countries with excessive private indebtedness. Several economies are expected to contract in 2020, which will lead to an increase in the poverty rate. Households linked to affected sectors will suffer more. To deal with this crisis, countries need to act fast and decisively to contain the spread of infection, while expanding capacity both to treat people and to test and trace infections. Fiscal measures should provide social protection to cushion against shocks, especially for the most economically vulnerable...”
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Why the coronavirus crisis is a ‘gray rhino’ and not a ‘black swan’ by Marcus Baram published by fastcompany (3/2020).
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"Are you using the wrong animal metaphor to describe the coronavirus crisis? In recent weeks, headlines about COVID-19 have been full of so-called experts describing the pandemic as a “black swan,” a metaphor for an extremely rare event that is unforeseen and has an enormous impact. It was coined by economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001—inspired by a 2nd-century Roman poet who presumed that such birds didn’t exist—and has been applied to such disparate outliers as the 9/11 attacks and the development of the internet..."
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Cities after coronavirus: how Covid-19 could radically alter urban life by Jack Shenker published by The Guardian (3/2020).
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“Pandemics have always shaped cities – and from increased surveillance to ‘de-densification’ to new community activism, Covid-19 is doing it already
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Victoria Embankment, which runs for a mile and a quarter along the River Thames, is many people’s idea of quintessential London. Some of the earliest postcards sent in Britain depicted its broad promenades and resplendent gardens. The Metropolitan Board of Works, which oversaw its construction, hailed it as an ‘appropriate, and appropriately civilised, cityscape for a prosperous commercial society’".
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