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Economics in the time of COVID-19 edited by Richard Baldwin and Beatrice Weder di Mauro published by VOXEU (2020).
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"COVID-19 is spreading human suffering worldwide; that is what we should all be focused on. But we are not doctors. We are economists – and COVID-19 is most definitely spreading economic suffering worldwide. The virus may in fact be as contagious economically as it is medically.
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Joining the OECD’s dire growth forecast of 2 March 2020, the European Commission said on 4 March 2020 that both Italy and France are at risk of slipping into recession, and the IMF said it sees “more dire” possibilities ahead for the global economy.
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This book is an extraordinary effort for extraordinary times. On Thursday 27 February, we emailed a group of leading economists to see if they’d contribute to the effort. The authors responded and the eBook came together literally over the weekend (the deadline for contributions was Monday 2 March 2020). The eBook is a testimony to the power of collaboration in a network that has the size, speed, flexibility, and talent of CEPR.
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The key economic questions addressed in the book are: How, and how far and fast, will the economic damage spread? How bad will it get? How long will the damage last? What are the mechanisms of economic contagion? And, above all, what can governments do about it?..."
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Fiscal policies to protect people during the coronavirus outbreak by Vitor Gaspar and Paolo Mauro published by IMF (3/2020).
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"A key role of government is to protect the well-being of its people—most crucially and visibly during emergencies such as the recent outbreak of the coronavirus. The IMF has $50 billion available in rapid-disbursing emergency financing to help countries suffering from the virus. As Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said, what we want is to guarantee that people are not going to die because of a lack of money.
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The priority for governments and the global community is to prevent people from contracting the disease and to cure those who do. More health spending can save lives both at home and globally.
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Given the virus’ rapid contagion, action can help ensure that countries’ health systems—including those that have limited capacity—do not become overwhelmed.
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The health spending must occur regardless of how much room in the budget a country may have. Low-income countries urgently need grants or zero-interest loans to finance the health spending they might not otherwise be able to afford. Experience with past epidemics, such as Ebola, shows that speed in deploying concessional finance is essential to contain the spread of the disease.
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Developing an effective vaccine also requires public money..."
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Las adminstraciones tributarias en el siglo XXI by Fernando Diaz Yubero y Pablo Porporatto publicado por CIAT (2020).
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"América Latina (AL) vive una situación muy compleja, con inestabilidad política y debilidad institucional, debido a los problemas económicos, los altos niveles de pobreza y la elevada concentración del ingreso, que, medida en términos del índice de Gini, es la peor del mundo. En ese contexto, cualquier país, que quiera tener equilibrio social y vivir en democracia, necesita un Estado suficiente y eficaz y para ello es imprescindible contar con un sistema tributario (ST) capaz de financiar un nivel razonable de servicios públicos y facilitar a los ciudadanos las infraestructuras imprescindibles para su desarrollo social y económico, sin incurrir en endeudamientos excesivos. La política fiscal es un instrumento muy potente para impulsar un crecimiento inclusivo, con beneficios que puedan ser distribuidos de manera equitativa. La OCDE y CEPAL, entre otros, recomiendan que, en el diseño de la política tributaria, se procure ampliar las bases imponibles, reduciendo los beneficios tributarios y los regímenes especiales, como así también mejorar la progresividad del ST en su conjunto. Además, se añade un aspecto que consideramos fundamental: fortalecer las Administraciones Tributarias (AATT), para que el ST se aplique efectivamente y se puedan alcanzar los objetivos previstos. Sin dudas, en el diseño del ST ha de tenerse en cuenta la capacidad y fortaleza de la AT para asegurar su aplicabilidad y sostenibilidad en el tiempo. Hay una clara interdependencia entre AT y ST: un sistema mal diseñado y sin considerar su posibilidad de gestión, no se puede aplicar y un buen sistema sólo se aplicará si existe una buena AT. Cómo ha de ser el ST de un país, con qué figuras debe contar, cuál debe ser el nivel de presión fiscal, cómo deben distribuirse las cargas, etc. son decisiones políticas esenciales que deben adoptarse por los parlamentarios elegidos democráticamente..."
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Addressing the Tax Challenges of the Digitalisation of the Economy – Policy Note published by OECD (1/2019).
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"The tax challenges of the digitalisation of the economy were identified as one of the main areas of focus of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Action Plan, leading to the 2015 BEPS Action 1 Report (the Action 1 Report). The Action 1 Report found that the whole economy was digitalizing and, as a result, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to ring-fence the digital economy. The Action 1 Report also observed that, beyond BEPS, the digitalisation of the economy raised a number of broader direct tax challenges chiefly relating to the question of how taxing rights on income generated from cross-border activities in the digital age should be allocated among countries. Following a mandate by G20 Finance Ministers in March 2017, the Inclusive Framework, working through its Task Force on the Digital Economy (TFDE) delivered an Interim Report in March 2018, Tax Challenges Arising from Digitalisation – Interim Report 2018 (the Interim Report). The Interim Report provided an in-depth analysis of value creation across new and changing business models in the context of digitalisation and the tax challenges they presented.1 These challenges included risks remaining after BEPS for highly mobile income producing factors which still can be shifted into low-tax environments. While members of the Inclusive Framework did not converge on the conclusions to be drawn from this analysis, they committed to continue working together towards a final report in 2020 aimed at providing a consensus-based long-term solution, with an update in 2019..."
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Evidências internacionais de sonegação fiscal: uma análise a partir do modelo de Graetz, Reinganun e Wilde por Felippe Clemente e Viviani Silva Lírio publicado por Revista Estudos Econômicos (9/2017).
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"O propósito desse artigo é parametrizar o modelo seminal de Graetz, Reinganun e Wilde (1986) para dois grupos de países: G1 com baixa evasão fiscal e G2 com alta evasão fiscal. Os principais resultados mostram uma forte correlação entre a carga tributária, o custo de fiscalizar e a evasão fiscal dos países. A multa parece ter pouca eficácia na mitigação da sonegação. Os resultados possuem implicações tanto do ponto de vista teórico quanto prático. Este é o primeiro estudo que se parametriza o modelo de Graetz, Reinganun e Wilde como forma de explanar a diversidade da evasão fiscal internacional e desenvolver uma estrutura internacional de conformidade fiscal. Assim, políticas que revisem a estrutura fiscal dos países bem como modernizem os órgãos fiscalizadores de forma a reduzir os seus custos, poderão ter efeitos positivos sobre a evasão de impostos. "
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Integrated inflation targeting - Another perspective from the developing world by Pierre-Richard Agénor and Luiz A Pereira da Silva published by BIS and CEMLA, indicated by Alvaro Manoel (2/2019).
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"This book provides a thorough assessment of recent experiences with inflation targeting (IT), the challenges it has faced since the global financial crisis, and ways in which these challenges have been, or should be, addressed. The discussion is conducted from the perspective of middle-income countries (MICs). As background for the analysis, Chapter 1 provides a review of key features of the financial system (with a focus on the role of bank credit) and the regulatory environment in MICs, the extent to which exposure to short-term capital flows affects economic stability in these countries, and the link between excessive credit growth and financial crises. Chapter 2 outlines the main characteristics of IT regimes, compared to other monetary policy regimes. Chapter 3 provides a detailed review of the evidence on the performance of these regimes in MICs. Both formal and informal evidence is considered. Chapter 4 discusses a number of challenges that IT has faced, including imperfect policy credibility, fiscal dominance, exchange rate volatility and the fear of floating, and the role of financial stability considerations in conducting monetary policy. The issue of whether monetary policy and macroprudential regulation are complements or substitutes, in a setting where both macroeconomic and financial stability matter, is taken up in Chapter 5. The analysis suggests that there are robust arguments to support the view that, in the context of an integrated inflation targeting (IIT) regime where central banks are concerned with achieving and maintaining both price and financial stability, monetary and macroprudential policies are complements. Issues associated with the design and practical implementation of IIT regimes are addressed in Chapter 6. The discussion emphasises the need to calibrate monetary and macroprudential policies jointly. Chapter 7 summarises the main policy lessons that can be drawn from the analysis."
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Corporate bond markets in a time of unconventional monetary policy published by OECD (2019).
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"Since the financial crisis in 2008, non-financial companies have dramatically increased their borrowing in the form of corporate bonds. Between 2008-2018 global corporate bond issuance averaged USD 1.7 trillion per year, compared to an annual average of USD 864 billion during the years leading up to the financial crisis. As a result, the global outstanding debt in the form of corporate bonds issued by non-financial companies reached almost USD 13 trillion at the end of 2018. This is twice the amount in real terms that was outstanding in 2008.
The United States remains the largest market for corporate bonds. But non-financial companies from most other economies, including Japan, the United Kingdom, France and Korea, have all increased their use of corporate bonds as a means of borrowing. On a global scale, the most significant shift has been the rapid growth of the Chinese corporate bond market. The People’s Republic of China (China) has moved from a negligible level of issuance prior to the 2008 crisis to a record issuance amount of USD 590 billion in 2016, ranking second highest in the world.
The increased use of corporate bonds has been supported by regulatory initiatives in many economies aiming at stimulating the use of corporate bonds as a viable source of long term funding for non-financial companies and an attractive asset class for investors. The increase in bond usage is also consistent with the objectives of expansionary monetary policy and the related unconventional measures by major central banks in the form of quantitative easing. Given the elevated risks and vulnerabilities associated with the current outstanding stock of corporate bonds that is documented in this paper, it is therefore important to understand how and to what extent today’s corporate bond markets may be influenced by different economic and public policy scenarios..."
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Cómo le va a tu país em inclusión financiera? publicado por IDB (2019).
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"Petra Guevara Martínez vive en una zona rural en México donde no hay muchas oportunidades económicas. Su comunidad está a varias horas de la ciudad más cercana y, cuando hay trabajos, no son bien remunerados. Frente a esta situación, en 2002 creó una empresa que se dedica a hacer ropa, camas y disfraces para perros. Empezó con un pequeño taller y, con los años, fue creciendo su producción.
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En 2014, su empresa se transformó por completo cuando accedió a un crédito para productores en zonas rurales, con el cual compró maquinaria y contrató a más gente. En tan solo un año, triplicó su producción y ahora distribuye en todo el país.
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Petra Guevara Martínez vive en una zona rural en México donde no hay muchas oportunidades económicas. Su comunidad está a varias horas de la ciudad más cercana y, cuando hay trabajos, no son bien remunerados. Frente a esta situación, en 2002 creó una empresa que se dedica a hacer ropa, camas y disfraces para perros. Empezó con un pequeño taller y, con los años, fue creciendo su producción.
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En 2014, su empresa se transformó por completo cuando accedió a un crédito para productores en zonas rurales, con el cual compró maquinaria y contrató a más gente. En tan solo un año, triplicó su producción y ahora distribuye en todo el país..."
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Tackling the tax code efficient and equitable ways to raise revenue edited by Jay Shambaugh and Ryan Nunn (1/2020).
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"Taxation is an enduring focus of economic policy debates. Substantial reforms and changes in tax rates happen every decade: as policymakers propose new ideas, they tend to match them with new revenues or a revised tax code. This volume contributes to that vital discussion with policy options for raising revenue in efficient and equitable ways. In this volume we present a series of policy options, authored by leading tax experts and backed by rigorous analysis, to increase federal revenue in ways that are both efficient and equitable. The policies include better tax enforcement, improved corporate taxation, increased taxation of wealth and inheritances, and taxes on financial and other transactions. Some options represent alternatives to each other; these provide informed choices for policymakers tasked with raising federal revenue. But the proposals share the goal of efficiently raising more revenue in a way that increases the burden on high earners while largely shielding low earners. Th ere are many reasons to raise more tax revenue. For example, the latest budget forecasts suggest that a persistent gap between federal revenue and federal spending will grow over time and thus generate a persistently increasing debt-to-GDP ratio. Even policymakers comfortable with current debt levels may wish to phase in additional revenue over time to stabilize or slow the increase in debt..."
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J.P. Morgan Launches Development Finance Institution (1/2020).
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