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Reforma tributária: começando pelo fim por José R. Afonso publicado pela Revista Conjuntura Econômica (9/2019). "São muitos os problemas em constitucionalizar ainda mais o sistema tributário (aliás, o governo apresentou recentemente propostas para fazer o mesmo com as regras fiscais). Isso vai na contramão da necessidade ou dúvida crucial decorrente da revolução digital. Novos padrões econômicos e sociais implicarão criar impostos hoje desconhecidos, em valorizar alguns dos atuais, e negligenciar ou mesmo extinguir outros. Nunca é demais relembrar que o Brasil Colonial tributava a posse e o comércio de escravos negros, um triste e repugnante negócio, mas que movia a economia local daquela época..."
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Winning with AI - pioneers combine strategy, organizational behavior, and tecnology by Sam Ransbotham, Shervin Khodabandeh, Ronny Fehling, Burt LaFountain, and David Kiron published by MITSloan Management Review - Research Report (10/2019).
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"After several decades of progress, AI technology is now poised to become a significant source of value for a wide range of businesses. In the 2019 MIT Sloan Management Review and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Artificial Intelligence Global Executive Study and Research Report, 9 out of 10 respondents agree that AI represents a business opportunity for their company. In addition, a growing number of leaders view AI as not just an opportunity but also a strategic risk: “What if competitors, particularly unencumbered new entrants, figure out AI before we do?” In 2019, 45% perceived some risk from AI, up from an already substantial 37% in 2017. This shift suggests an increasing awareness of and concern with competitors’ use of AI. In China, perceived risk from AI is even higher..."
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Cinco hallazgos sobre la situación del gasto em inversión pública de América Latina por Edna Armendáriz y Haydeeliz Carrasco Núñez publicado por IADB (12/2019).
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"En América Latina (AL), hablar del gasto en inversión pública se vuelve cada vez más relevante. En el contexto actual, de menores perspectivas de crecimiento económico y menores recursos fiscales, proteger el gasto en inversión pública (y su gestión eficiente) podría ser clave para revitalizar el crecimiento económico, reducir desigualdades de ingreso y apostar a recursos fiscales futuros.
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Sin embargo, a la fecha en América Latina existen pocos sistemas de información centralizados y de uso y consulta amigables sobre la evolución y composición del gasto en inversión pública de la región. Esta información resulta clave para monitorear y evaluar las prioridades de inversión dentro de los Sistemas Nacionales de Inversión Pública, así como para informar decisiones de recomposición eficiente e inteligente del gasto público total, de acuerdo a un estudio reciente del BID..."
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Debt and entanglements between the wars by Thomas J. Sargent; George Hall; Martin Ellison; Andrew Scott; Harold James; Era Dabla-Norris; Mark De Broeck; Nicolas End, Marina Marikov and Vitor Gaspar published by IMF (11/2019).
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"World War I created a set of forces that affected the political arrangements and economies of all the countries involved. This period in global economic history between World War I and II offers rich material for studying international monetary and sovereign debt policies. Debt and Entanglements between the Wars focuses on the experiences of the United States, United Kingdom, four countries in the British Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Newfoundland), France, Italy, Germany, and Japan, offering unique insights into how political and economic interests influenced alliances, defaults, and the unwinding of debts. The narratives presented show how the absence of effective international collaboration and resolution mechanisms inflicted damage on the global economy, with disastrous consequences."
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Debt is not free by Marialuz Moreno Badia, Paulo Medas, Pranav Gupta and Yuan Xiang published by IMF (01/2020).
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"With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong nonlinearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low."
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Sistema constitucional tributário: o custeio de direitos fundamentais por meio de contribuição destinada à seguridade social por Roque Antônio Carrazza e Diógenes Teófilo de Jesus publicado na Revista Jurídica (12/2019).
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"O estudo está situado na zona de interseção entre o Direito Tributário, o Direito Administrativo e o Direito da Seguridade Social, o que é metodologicamente possível, em função do seu princípio unificador: o Sistema Constitucional Tributário. Mediante pesquisa qualitativa bibliográfica, o trabalho promoverá um diálogo entre as competências do Estado brasileiro, em ordem a contrapor o atributo da referibilidade das contribuições destinadas ao custeio da seguridade social, ao custeio da despesa pública, incorrida para promoção de políticas sociais, que têm por objeto direitos fundamentais. A partir da identificação dos atributos socias e fiscais do Estado, levada a efeito por CASALTA NABAIS, será realizado o cotejo das referidas contribuições e seu regime jurídico, com o sistema constitucional tributário brasileiro. Para tanto, será levado em conta o pragmaticismo jurídico de PEIRCE, contemplando os três estágios do exercício da razão: abdução, dedução e indução. Por fim, indo além da validade das normas jurídicas, será feita uma incursão pelos meandros da justiça tributária, principio reitor para a construção de todas as proposições que pretendam ser Direito."
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Taxing billionaires: estate taxes and the geographical location of the ultra-wealthy by Erico Moretti and Daniel J. Wilson published by NBER (10/2019).
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"We study the effect of state-level estate taxes on the geographical location of the Forbes 400 richest Americans and its implications for tax policy. We use a change in federal tax law to identify the tax sensitivity of the ultra-wealthy's locational choices. Before 2001, some states had an estate tax and others didn't, but the tax liability for the ultra-wealthy was independent of their domicile state due to a federal credit. In 2001, the credit was phased out and the estate tax liability for the ultra-wealthy suddenly became highly dependent on domicile state. We find the number of Forbes 400 individuals in estate tax states fell by 35% after 2001 compared to nonestate tax states. We also find that billionaire's sensitivity to the estate tax increases significantly with age. Overall, billionaires' geographical location appears to be highly sensitive to state estate taxes..."
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Is the expenditure benchmark up standard? Procyclicality in the measurement of potential output and the future of the EU fiscal framework by Sebastian Barnes and Eddie Casey (2019).
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" Potential benefits of expenditure rules
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Any fiscal variable could be used as the target, however, some arguments in favourof spending rule:
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• Revisions to allowable growth rate in a given year likely lessthan revisions to output gap
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• Spending more directly under government control: does not rely on estimated tax elasticity
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• Link to multiannual expenditure ceilings
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Análisis estratégico de servicios de 'Nube Inteligente' em América Latina y el Caribe por Carlos Pimenta publicado por IADB (11/2019).
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"Es cada vez mayor el uso de servicios en la nube por las organizaciones, principalmente las del sector privado, entre las cuales ya más del 80% usan este tipo de servicio, pero todavía no es tan común en el sector público, principalmente entre los países de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC). Si bien en lo general y en el largo plazo los costos son mucho menores con el uso de los servicios en la nube, el costo no es el único factor para analizarse, hay aspectos estratégicos muy importantes a ser considerado en la definición de una política pública de contratación de servicios en la nube en el sector público..."
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Unveiling the objectives of central banks: tales of four Latin American countries by Marcos Gómez, Juan Pablo Medina and Gonzalo Valenzuela published by IMF (2018).
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"We estimate the stabilization objectives of four Latin American countries that have implemented a flexible inflation targeting regime recently: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. In doing so, we develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for these economies and estimate their structural parameters through Bayesian methods. To infer the stabilization objectives in each country, we assume that central banks set monetary policy optimally. Our main results highlight that the central banks in these four countries have a high preference for stabilizing inflation, but do not have the systematic objective of stabilizing the exchange rate. This result is robust to assuming either commitment or discretion in the optimal policy. Also, in contrast to the case of commitment, assuming discretion in the optimal monetary policy increases the preference for interest rate smoothing, making it comparable toa preference for inflation stabilization. Finally,except for the caseofPeru,themonetarypolicyunderdiscretionhasabetterempiricalfitinthesecountriesthantheoneunder commitment..."
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